The Psychology of Misjudgments - IV
Reason respecting
Our need for making sense makes us even believe in nonsense. When people ask us for a favor we are more likely to comply if they give us a reason - even if we don't understand the reason or it is wrong. We should not only give people reasons for what to do but should also encourage flexibility.
Understanding reasons is an important factor in learning. To learn, remember, organize, and use ideas, we must understand the why and how.
It is often easier to get people to change with a well-explained reason backed by solid evidence. Sometimes it is better to appeal to emotions than to reason since people are more moved by what they feel than by what they understand.
Sensemaking
We don't like uncertainty. We need to understand and make sense of events. We refuse to accept the unknown. We don't like unpredictability and meaninglessness. We therefore seek explanations for why things happen. By finding patterns and causal relationships we get comfort and learn for the future.
Believe first and doubt later
We start assuming that a product is good for us and look for evidence that confirms it. We believe people when they give us reasons. We are not natural skeptics. We find it easy to believe, but difficult to doubt. Doubting is active and takes effort. Studies show that in order to understand some information we must first accept it as true.
Memory limitations
Our memory is selective. Every time we recall an event, we reconstruct our memories. We only remember fragments of our real past experiences. We remember certain things and distort or forget others. Certain experiences create strong feelings and are therefore more memorable than others. Emotional events are better remembered than unemotional ones. That is why we learn better if information is tied to a vivid story. Childhood memories are unreliable and influenced by fantasies and suggestions.
Emotions
Emotions come before reason. Often when we make a decision our feelings take over. Under the influence of intense emotions we sometimes make hasty judgments and choices we would normally never do. Risk is a feeling. We automatically judge how good or bad a stimulus is based on how we feel about it. When something produces strong emotions, we overweigh its consequences and underweigh its chance of happening.
Contextual Influences
Our behavior is influenced by social situational factors, conditions and circumstances, the structure or description of a problem or choice, and our desires, mood, and expectations. We tend to overestimate personal characteristics and motives when we explain the behavior of others. We underestimate situational factors like social pressure, roles or things over which there are no control. We are influenced by the order, first or last, in which a presentation happens.
The key variable is the amount of time that separates the presentations, the time when we have to make judgment, and which presentation in the most easily remembered.
This post a summary of a chapter from the book - Seeking Wisdom - From Darwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin